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East Africa Food Security Outlook, June 2021 to January 2022 – Burundi


Severe food insecurity is expected until early 2022 due to conflict, weather and economic shocks

KEY MESSAGES

• Food insecurity ranges from severe to extreme in conflict-affected areas in Ethiopia, South Sudan and Yemen, where millions of people are in urgent need of humanitarian food assistance. In Ethiopia’s Tigray region, emergency outcomes (IPC Phase 4) are likely despite a relative decline in active conflict since late June, and the outcomes may be worse in some areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes characterized by growing gaps in food consumption and high acute malnutrition also persist in South Sudan and Yemen.
Large-scale food and non-food assistance, an end to hostilities and unhindered humanitarian access are needed to save lives.

• In addition to conflicts, climate shocks continue to be the main driver of crisis outcomes (IPC Phase 3) in the East African region. In the East Horn and northern Uganda, for example, many households have already lost food and income due to the impacts of erratic rainfall on crop and animal production in early to mid 2021.
Several climate prediction models also predict that a third consecutive below-average rainy season will occur in the Eastern Horn at the end of 2021. A multi-seasonal drought is expected to further reduce household and market food stocks, suppress food stocks. household income from work related to crops and livestock. and sales, drive up food and water prices and lead to resource conflicts. Coupled with other simultaneous shocks – such as conflict and insecurity – food aid needs will remain high and above average in Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and the north. and eastern Kenya until at least early 2022. Some households in these areas could turn into an emergency situation (IPC Phase 4).

• Economic shocks are expected to exacerbate the severity of acute food insecurity in parts of the region, particularly Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen. Local currency depreciation, inflation, high import and fuel costs and other factors keep staple food prices high and limit economic activity, which in turn restricts purchasing power Household. In Sudan, for example, FEWS NET estimates that poor macroeconomic conditions, protracted conflicts in parts of Darfur, Kordofan and Red Sea states, and widespread seasonal flooding are pushing food aid needs by nearly 50 to 50%. 60 percent above the five-year average.

• The COVID-19 pandemic also continues to affect food insecurity, particularly among urban households in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda and refugees in Uganda. The renewal of movement restrictions imposed in April and May to mitigate the increase in COVID-19 infections has resulted in reduced economic activity and increased costs for public transport. In Uganda, food assistance to refugees is probably insufficient to mitigate the loss of income, which was already very limited before the pandemic; as a result, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) The results persist.


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